We show that the inequality in the divergent acoustic energy release rate in quasistatically compressed nanoporous materials can be used as a precursor to failure. A quantification of the inequality in the evolution of the energy release rate using social inequality (such as Gini and Kolkata) indices can predict large bursts of energy release. We also verify similar behavior for simulations of viscoelastic fiber bundle models that mimic the strain-hardening dynamics of the samples. The results demonstrate experimental applicability of the precursory signal for fracture with a diverging energy release rate using social inequality indices.

The intermittent dynamics of driven interfaces through disordered media and its subsequent depinning for large enough driving force is a common feature for a myriad of diverse systems, starting from mode-I fracture, vortex lines in superconductors, and magnetic domain walls to invading fluid in a porous medium, to name a few. In this work, we outline a framework that can give a precursory signal of the imminent depinning transition by monitoring the variations in sizes or the inequality of the intermittent responses of a system that are seen prior to the depinning point. In particular, we use measures traditionally used to quantify economic inequality, i.e., the Gini index and the Kolkata index, for the case of the unequal responses of precritical systems. The crossing point of these two indices serves as a precursor to imminent depinning. Given a scale-free size distribution of the responses, we calculate the expressions for these indices, evaluate their crossing points, and give a recipe for forecasting depinning transitions. We apply this method to the Edwards-Wilkinson, Kardar-Parisi-Zhang, and fiber bundle model interface with variable interaction strengths and quenched disorder. The results are applicable for any interface dynamics undergoing a depinning transition. The results also explain previously observed near-universal values of Gini and Kolkata indices in self-organized critical systems.

Prediction of an imminent catastrophic event in a driven disordered system is of paramount importance - from the laboratory scale controlled fracture experiment to the largest scale of mechanical failure, i.e., earthquakes. It has long been conjectured that the statistical regularities in the energy emission time series mirror the "health"of such driven systems and hence have the potential for forecasting imminent catastrophe. Among other statistical regularities, a measure of how unequal avalanche sizes are is potentially a crucial indicator of imminent failure. The inequalities of avalanche sizes are quantified using inequality indices traditionally used in socioeconomic systems: the Gini index g, the Hirsch index h, and the Kolkata index k. It is shown analytically (for the mean-field case) and numerically (for the non-mean-field case) with models of quasi-brittle materials that the indices show universal behavior near the breaking points in such models and hence could serve as indicators of imminent breakdown of stressed disordered systems.

Prediction of a breakdown in disordered solids under external loading is a question of paramount importance. Here we use a fiber bundle model for disordered solids and record the time series of the avalanche sizes and energy bursts. The time series contain statistical regularities that not only signify universality in the critical behavior of the process of fracture, but also reflect signals of proximity to a catastrophic failure. A systematic analysis of these series using supervised machine learning can predict the time to failure. Different features of the time series become important in different variants of training samples. We explain the reasons for such a switch over of importance among different features. We show that inequality measures for avalanche time series play a crucial role in imminent failure predictions, especially for imperfect training sets, i.e., when simulation parameters of training samples differ considerably from those of the testing samples. We also show the variation of predictability of the system as the interaction range and strengths of disorders are varied in the samples, varying the failure mode from brittle to quasibrittle (with interaction range) and from nucleation to percolation (with disorder strength). The effectiveness of the supervised learning is best when the samples just enter the quasibrittle mode of failure showing scale-free avalanche size distributions.