Department of Economics

Micro, small, and medium enterprises play a fundamental role in economic devel-opment by fostering employment, innovation, and international trade. However, these enterprises face substantial challenges in volatile global trade conditions, necessitating accurate forecasting methodologies for effective strategic planning. This study aims to evaluate and compare traditional time series models and advanced machine learning techniques in predicting export trends. The research employs Double Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average alongside Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting to assess forecasting accuracy. Performance metrics including Root Mean Square Error, Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and R-Square are utilized for model evaluation. Results indicate that while traditional time series models provide foundational forecasting insights, they are outperformed by machine learning techniques. Among these, Random Forest demonstrates the highest predictive accuracy and reliability. However, Extreme Gradient Boosting exhibits near-perfect met-rics, necessitating further scrutiny to address potential overfitting. The study empha-sises the necessity of integrating traditional and machine learning methodologies to enhance forecasting precision. These insights are valuable for policymakers, re-searchers, and industry practitioners seeking to strengthen export strategies and sus-tain economic growth

Healthy and hygienicmenstruation is crucial for promoting equality and dignity among women. Menstruation is a natural physiological process which is a vital part of women's lives. Lack of menstrual health management can be a hindrance to achieving equity in terms of human rights. Menstrual health and hygiene still need priority, especially among low- and middle-income countries such as India. The present study aims to investigate the existing knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) on menstrual hygiene followed by young girls in the slums of Vishakhapatnam city, Andhra Pradesh, India. This study also assesses the impact of these practices on reproductive health from the perspective of human rights based on the primary data collected from the slums of Vishakhapatnam city. The findings of the study reveal that the majority of the menstruating respondents are using disposable sanitary pads during their periods. The mother and elderly women in the family are the primary sources of initial menstrual information and awareness for girls. Furthermore, the majority of respondents are using only water to clean their genitals during menstruation. The age, private schooling, household size, access to smartphones, household income, number of living rooms and information from the teachers are the significant predictors associated with improved KAP for menstruation hygiene among the respondents

Despite the fact that mining activities are necessary for economic growth, it is imperative that the health hazards connected with them be reduced. The extent to which several factors influence the healthcare cost and health status of the local community in mining locations remains poorly understood. Thus, this article aims to determine the factors that cause a high amount of health expenditure and identify the socio-demographic and economic reasons behind the respiratory illness (RIs) in six mining villages in Talcher coalfield of Odisha. The analysis used estimation techniques like descriptive statistics, ordinary least square (OLS) regression and Probit method. The findings of this article revealed that social infrastructure, such as education of the household head, age group, gender and social categories, along with economic condition, have a significant role in affecting the volume of health expenditure. The findings also highlighted the importance of the socio-demographic indicators for a high level of RIs in this location. Therefore, policymakers need to focus on the health infrastructure and socio-demographic and economic backgrounds in the mining areas to improve proper healthcare utilisation in the mining villages.

This article examines the determinants explaining the innovative behaviour of the firms operating in the Indian automotive components industry. The study uses an unbalanced panel of 114 firms operating in the components industry compiled from the Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy database for the period 2000–2018 and employs the panel Tobit model estimated with the maximum likelihood estimator. The finding of the estimated models finds that various explanatory variables such as firm’s size, age, technology imports, overseas investment and affiliation to a business group exercise positive and significant effects on enhancing this industry’s technological capabilities, while other variables such as market share, firm’s leverage and business group affiliates with investments abroad have negative and significant effects. All these findings suggest that being outward-oriented in terms of overseas investments and being affiliated to a business group creates a significant difference in respect of the innovative behaviour of the firms in this industry. JEL Codes: O320, L620

The shift in economic structure from agricultural to the modern service sector is hypothesized to promote growth by delivering inclusive quality employment. However, service sector is primarily associated with ‘high skilled’ labour, and in a context of labour surplus economy like India, there are concerns about labour absorption in services due to high presence of low and unskilled labour. Women make up a significant proportion of unskilled workers, but little is known about their participation in the service sector in the aftermath of economic structural change. Therefore, it becomes imperative to examine the participation of women within informal labour market in the services sector jobs. This article examines how employment opportunities fare for informal women workers within the services sector in cities? Can employment avenues that arise from expansion of services provide quality employment opportunities by leading them to step out of existing gender stereotypes in the labour market? Further, are these jobs equally accessible to all women? This is examined through micro-level analysis from survey, interviews and case studies of women workers in low-income neighbourhoodsof Hyderabad, India. In recent decades, Hyderabad has emerged as an epicentre for IT, attracting domestic and foreign players and drastically changing the city's labour and social landscape. Based on findings, the article attempts to analyse gendering the labour in modern informal service sector akin to the traditional categorization of women’s work. The article posits there is strong segmentation in modern economy and informal labour market based on institutional lines, which influences inclusion and exclusion of female workers. While the jobs are segmented on basis of gender, caste, education, new forms of segmentation are emerging in the forms of age, appearance, and intra-household factors, keeping women limited to only certain avenues in the modern economy.

Global warming has led to environmental degradation, which has turned into one of the most pressing challenges affecting practically all forms of life. Understanding the determinants of this problem is essential to formulate corrective policy measures. The existing literature has neglected the supply side dynamics, as the majority of prior research has concentrated on the demand side aspects of the problem of environmental degradation. To address this limitation, this study uses the load capacity factor, a novel, broader, and comprehensive indicator of environmental health that considers both demand as well as supply side concerns of environmental degradation. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the novel load capacity factor hypothesis along with the pollution haven hypothesis in the Indian context in the presence of energy security risk and financial development. The study utilized data from 1980 to 2021 and used a nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag model for analysis. The results validate the U-shaped load capacity factor hypothesis, suggesting environmental quality deteriorates initially but improves as economic growth breaches a threshold level. The results further validate the pollution haven hypothesis in India, demonstrating that international investments in India have led to the creation of pollution havens and are flowing into energy intensive sectors. It is further revealed that energy security risk is jeopardizing environmental sustainability, as the country is vulnerable in terms of energy security, whereas financial development is enhancing the quality of the environment through the promotion of green energy initiatives. India needs to develop important policies pertaining to its economic activity and environmental preservation, both of which are included in the paper

Historical data on inflation indicates that India has experienced moderate inflation, though there have been episodes of sharp spikes due to factors like drought, war, oil shocks, and demand shocks. Recently, the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent geopolitical tensions in Gulf and European countries created considerable challenges to the Indian economy in controlling inflation. The longterm average WPI based inflation since Independence is 6.04. This means the purchasing power of the sum of ?100 in 1951–52 is worth just ?1.46 in 2023–24 or ?100 in 1951–52 would be worth approximately ?6867.02 in 2023–24. Against this background, the study attempts to present stylised facts about inflation dynamics in India by using alternative measures since Independence. The study examines key inflation trends, analysing its trajectory and volatility across different periods, including the pre- and post-economic periods, various decades, and during different monetary policy regimes. The paper also briefly explains the evolution of monetary policy owing to financial development, openness of the Indian economy, and shifts in monetary policy transmission mechanism. The results indicate that inflation in India was high and volatile before economic reforms. However after reforms, not only inflation, its variability, incidence and duration have also declined significantly. High inflation and volatility are associated with low and unstable growth rates. The fall in inflation is attributed to economic reforms of 1991, better supply management, monetary-fiscal coordination, and effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. The paper supports the transition from targeting WPI based headline inflation to CPI based headline inflation as a nominal anchor, following the adoption of a rule-based inflation targeting regime

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of small-scale irrigation on the total income of small farm households. Additionally, it aims to identify the factors influencing the total income of households who have adopted small-scale irrigation methods.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized cross-sectional data sourced directly from primary channels. Primary data collection was facilitated through the administration of semi-structured questionnaires and conducting in-depth interviews. Both propensity score matching (PSM) and an ordinary least squares (OLS) model were employed to assess the impact of small-scale irrigation on total income and to identify factors affecting the effectiveness of SSI. In order to ensure that the PSM model’s findings were consistent, we used instrumental variables (IV) estimation, which was conducted using two stages least squares (2SLS) regression.FindingsThe study findings reveal that small-scale irrigation adopters earn, on average, 12,947.32 Birr more than non-adopters. The PSM model reveals that households engaged in small-scale irrigation experience a significant increase in total income compared to non-irrigating households. The study underscores the need to address key factors influencing the treatment effect on household income, including distance to farm training centers, proximity to water sources, access to transportation, availability of family labor and frequency of extension contact.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper only examines the effect of small-scale irrigation on small farm households’ total income. This study encourages future studies to investigate the effects of small-scale irrigation on small farm household food security, total spending, poverty reduction, welfare and net earnings in the study area.Originality/valueMost studies only analyze how small-scale irrigation affects the total income of small-scale farm households. This study fills a knowledge gap by identifying the key elements that influence the extent of the impact on user households.

Aligning with the United Nations SDGs, global efforts to enrich environmental quality can only be realized by decarbonizing carbon-intensive sectors, including transportation. Although emerging economies contribute substantially to the world economy, they struggle to achieve environmental sustainability with increasing industrialization, urban mobility, and transportation. Therefore, this study analyses whether the environmental tax (ET), green technology innovation (GTI), and biofuel use (BF) abate emissions from the transportation sector, considering 11 emerging economies from 2004 to 2022 using the dynamic fixed effect and CS-ARDL estimation techniques. The empirical analysis also discloses the imperative role of institutional quality (IQ) by integrating IQ's direct and moderation effects with GTI, BF, and ET. The empirical evidence highlights that while BF (?0.138), GTI (?0.074), and IQ (?1.303) ameliorate the decarbonization process, ET (?0.123) does not significantly decarbonize the transportation sector in the long-run. Furthermore, the results disclose an important role of IQ in moderating the emissions mitigation effectiveness of GTI (?0.174), BF (?0.129), and ET (?0.193) in emerging economies, indicating that benevolent institutional support is crucial for the sustainable transformation of the transportation sector in the long-run. Thus, this study suggests including policy mandates for generating second-generation biofuels, modernization of transportation infrastructure through green innovations, and strengthening institutional settings through a decentralized governance system to realize higher benefits and environmental goals

India’s dairy sector plays a critical role in rural income, employment, and food security,contributing significantly to the nation’s GDP. This study forecasts India’s milk productionfor the period 2024–2033, using historical data from 1981–2023 obtained from theDepartment of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of India. The study adoptsARIMA and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing models for the forecasting of milk productionin India, both the models reflected strong fits, with ARIMA excelling in capturing temporalstructures and Holt’s model focusing on linear trends. Performance metrics highlighted thehigh accuracy of both models, with R-squared values exceeding 0.99 and minimal errormargins. The research provides actionable insights for farmers, policymakers, and otherstakeholders. The results project milk production to increase steadily, reaching 315.6–321.4million tons by 2033. The study highlights the potential of leveraging these forecasts forstrategic planning, including synchronizing production with demand, improving marketstability, and addressing infrastructural and environmental challenges

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This research highlights the role of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in addressing the financial inclusion challenges within the informal sector of the economy. It considers variables such as financial literacy, financial self-efficacy, documentation process, etc. to examine the association with UPI usage. Data for this research have been obtained from 120 informal sector respondents, working in the construction sector in the Krishna and Guntur districts of Andhra Pradesh, India through a questionnaire-based survey. Ordinal logistic regression has been used to assess the association between variables. This research reveals that financial literacy and financial self-efficacy have a significant association with financial inclusion via the use of UPI. The documentation process acted as a strong impediment to financial inclusion. Further, the research finds that young respondents are more inclined to use UPI services. All these findings suggest that UPI services are pertinent for financial inclusiveness in the informal sector of the economy.

Investments in green energy projects are highly critical to promoting climate transition and sustainable development. This objective motivates the investigation of the effect of green investments on inclusive growth. We develop an endogenous inclusive growth model that illustrates the channel through which private and public investments in green investments contribute to inclusive growth. By employing a dataset of the BRICS economies from 1990 to 2019, we fit both linear fixed-effects and fixed-effects threshold regression, the latter of which exhibits better prediction of green investment effects. Accordingly, the threshold regression estimates reveal that higher thresholds of green investments substantially accelerate inclusive growth in the BRICS economies. Furthermore, by controlling for the threshold role of financial sector development, we document the heterogeneous effects of green investments on inclusive growth. Unlike financial institutions’ development thresholds, a higher level of overall financial development and financial market development strengthens the positive role of green investments. Our findings offer impeccable policy actions to the governments and policymakers of the BRICS economies on pathways to promote green energy investments for sustainable development

The present research focuses on the endogenous development theory and investigates the relationships between economic growth (dependent variable) and renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and export diversification (independent variables) in seven emerging economies known as the E-7. Previous studies have examined these factors individually but have not explored their combined impact on the E-7 economies. Therefore, this study contributes to the existing literature on the effects of renewable energy consumption, technological advancement, and export diversification on economic development. This study analyses the dynamic connections among these variables in seven selected emerging countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey. Panel data from 1990 to 2022 are utilised, and various methodologies, including panel cointegration, the pooled mean group–autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, and robustness tests, such as the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square tests, are employed. Empirical inferences are drawn using the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality (DHC) test, and the long-run relationships among the variables are validated using the Westerlund residual cointegration tests. The results from the PMG-ARDL estimator show that renewable energy consumption, technological advancement, and export diversification have a significant and positive impact on economic expansion, confirming the validity of the endogenous growth model in the E-7 countries. The control variable of the financial sector has a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth, while trade openness has a negative and significant effect. The DHC test results indicate a neutral feedback effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth. The findings also reveal a unidirectional causal relationship between technological innovation and economic growth. Overall, these findings provide valuable insights for economic policymakers in the E-7 countries. By removing barriers to renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and export diversification, policymakers can promote sustainable economic development.

Handloom weaving stands as one of the primary economic activities in India, second only to agriculture. This industry contributes approximately 15% to the nation's total fabric production and is responsible for over 95% of the global output of hand-woven cloth. According to the 4th All India Handloom Census (2019-20), the sector employs around 35.23 lakh workers, including over 26 lakh weavers and more than 8 lakh allied workers, operating across 28.20 lakh looms. This study examines the problem faced by the silk handloom weavers in the Azamgarh and Varanasi districts of Uttar Pradesh, based on primary data through a structured interview schedule. The data was evaluated using a simple percentage and presented by tables.The research identifies several key problems impacting the handloom sector's productivity and sustainability. Among these, the high cost, poor quality, and scarcity of raw materials are significant issues. Marketing difficulties are prevalent, with 75.3% of weavers reporting challenges such as competition from power looms, inadequate promotional activities, and restricted market access due to the dominance of master weavers and cooperative heads. Financial instability is another critical concern, affecting 80% of the weavers, who struggle with poor access to funding, high-interest loans, and increasing debt. Design-related problems are also noted, with 46.7% of weavers expressing the need for greater creativity and innovation to remain competitive. Moreover, 89.4% of weavers report a lack of access to training and workshops, emphasizing the need for skill development to meet modern market demands. Technological challenges are also significant, with 82.7% of weavers lacking access to modern tools and equipment, which hampers their efficiency and output quality. Additionally, awareness of government schemes is alarmingly low, with only 27.9% of weavers informed about available support, revealing a critical communication gap. To address these multifaceted problems, the study recommends several policy interventions. The establishment of a Raw Material Bank is proposed to ensure the availability of essential inputs for handloom weaving. The introduction of a Yarn Passbook system is suggested to subsidize yarn costs for eligible weavers. The government is also urged to provide interest-free loans or soft loans with flexible repayment terms, tailored to the specific needs and performance of the weavers. A collaborative platform that brings together silk handloom weavers and fashion designers is recommended to foster design innovation and enhance market competitiveness. Additionally, the modernization of looms and equipment, particularly those that reduce physical strain and increase productivity, is essential for the sector's sustainability. These policy recommendations aim to improve the socio-economic conditions of the weavers, strengthen their market position, and ensure the long-term viability of the handloom industry in these regions.

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Among the contemporary issues in the global environment is how countries' and regions' interactions benefit economic agents, especially in developing countries where poverty prevails. Over the years, globalization has continued to increase, mainly as a result of differences in resources and technology, but how it affects the poor has remained one of the central issues in international economics. In this paper, we thus developed a Globalization-Growth-Poverty (GGP) triangular nexus to provide an answer to whether globalization and growth can help India achieve Goal 1 of sustainable development. The cointegration approach was used, and our result validates the globalization-led growth hypothesis and shows interconnectedness among globalization, economic growth, and poverty, which confirms the GGP triangular nexus. Our results further show that growth and globalization have a positive near future impact on poverty in India. Thus, the results suggest to the government and policymakers that the achievement of poverty reduction and sustainable development in India can be realized with sustained economic growth and increased globalization.

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Nigeria has the highest maternal mortality rate among sub-Saharan African countries. Recently, universal health insurance coverage has been embraced as a means to enhance population health in low- and middle-income countries. Hitherto, the effect of health insurance coverage on the utilisation of facility-level delivery is largely unknown in the face of the earnest need to lower maternal mortality rates in developing countries. Aim: To empirically investigate the association of health insurance coverage on health services utilisation of facility-level delivery and the extent to which public- and private-sector facility delivery in Nigeria had a disproportionate associational effect with health insurance coverage, in the universal health coverage era. Setting: A cross-sectional study conducted for Nigeria. Methods: This study employed a quasi-experimental method using propensity scores along with different matching methods that were applied to the most recent wave of Nigeria’s Demographic and Health Survey (2020) data. Results: Evidence suggests that childbearing mothers from insured households had an average of 25% probability of utilising facility-level delivery relative to mothers from uninsured households in the year that preceded the survey. Moreover, private-sector facility delivery had a 31% higher associational effect with health insurance coverage than public-sector facility delivery, which had an estimated probability of 21%. Conclusion: Expansion of health insurance coverage in Nigeria will be a desirable way to stimulate the utilisation of facility-level delivery by women of childbearing age. Consequently, coverage expansion has the potential to save many maternal and newborn lives in Nigeria. Contribution: This study has contributed to the urgent attention of the federal government of Nigeria to monitor and revamp the health insurance coverage policies of the country for better facilitation of health services to the Nigerian population.

We verify the effect of ESG disclosures on firm performance using NSE 500 index listed companies spanning from 2010 to 2020. The study employs a method-of-moments quantile regression approach to test whether ESG disclosures lead to superior firm performance. We find evidence that environmental, social, and governance disclosures positively influence firm performance. Higher quantiles of ESG disclosures are associated with better market performance (Tobin's Q), and the same lead to lower profitability (ROA). The present study suggests that companies aspiring to improve their financial performance may pay more attention to ESG disclosure practices.